That’s the bad news. People want gold and silver badly. They are willing to pay much more than the spot price, but they can’t find bullion to buy. They can’t find it because there isn’t enough physical metal available at these drastic, artificially induced, fear and fund-liquidation-caused spot prices.
Foreign bond funds are falling for Canadian mortgage bonds.
Canada Housing Trust, a federal government agency, had another successful outing in the capital markets on Tuesday, raising $8-billion from the sale of Canada Mortgage Bonds, known on the Street as CMBs.
These bonds are guaranteed by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp, as part of the CMHC’s program to backstop the residential real estate market. The underwriting was led by CIBC World Markets, Merrill Lynch, RBC Dominion Securities and TD Securities.
The latest round of CMB sales featured increasing interest from international investors. Doug Bartlett, head of CIBC’s government finance team, said rise in CMB purchases from outside the country “is reflective of the international investors’ positive view of Canadian government debt.”
The latest CMB offering is five-year debt, sold with 3.15 per cent interest rate. That translates into a 42.5 basis point premium to the comparable government of Canada bond, yet the CMB carried the same triple-A credit rating as the federal government.
Underwriters sold 24 per cent of the bonds outside Canada. U.S. investors bought 17 per cent of this offering, while European and Asian customers each stepped up for just over 3 per cent of the new bonds.
Six months into 2009, the CMB program has seen investors buy $27.3-billion of debt. In all of 2008, CMB offerings totalled $43.5-billion With this week’s issue, the outstanding CMB total $165-billion, of which $154-billion featured fixed rates and $11-billion are floating rate issues.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of starts increased to 128,400 units during the month from 117,600 in April, CMHC said Monday.
"Housing starts are expected to improve throughout 2009 and over the next several years to gradually become more closely aligned to demographic demand, which is currently estimated at about 175,000 units per year," the Crown corporation said.
Economics expected housing starts to total 126,000 units in May.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts was up 11.1% to 107,800 units in May, CMHC said. Multiple unit urban starts rose to 60,900 units and single unit starts increased to 46,900 units -- with both categories rising by a similar 11.1% from the previous month.
"The increase in May is broadly based, encompassing both the singles and multiples segments," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist.
Overall urban starts were up 22% in Ontario, 16.8% in the Prairies, 7.3% in Atlantic Canada and 3.3% in Quebec. Meanwhile, urban starts fell 5% in British Columbia.
Rural starts were little changed at 20,600 units in May.
"The broad-based nature of the increase in residential construction activity in May was an encouraging development for this beleaguered sector of the Canadian economy," said Millan Mulraine.
"Indeed, after plunging precipitously since late 2007, and appearing to be in free-fall in recent months, this rebound may be an indication that the sector is perhaps stabilizing.
"Nevertheless, with the Canadian labour market continuing to weaken and the overall economy remaining quite soft, we expect residential building activity to remain in the current depressed range for some time."
TABLE
Housing starts in May (seasonally adjusted):
Canada, all areas 128,400
Canada, rural areas 20,600
Canada, urban centres 107,800
Canada, singles, urban centres 46,900
Canada, multiples, urban centres 60,900
Atlantic region, urban centres 7,300
Quebec, urban centres 34,200
Ontario, urban centres 41,600
Prairie region, urban centres 15,300
British Columbia, urban centres 9,400
rises faster than interest rates. Gold is going to be king in the Market in the few coming days ...you have been warned ..those who do not buy gold now will find themselves broke when hyper inflation as propheciesed by top notch investors such as Marc Faber or Jim Rogers you will have only yourselves to blame if you keep your assets in US dollars or US treasury Bonds
The rate for five-year closed mortgages, one of the most commonly chosen by Canadian homeowners, goes up 0.4 percentage point to 5.85 per cent.
That's on top of a 0.2-point increase in the five-year rate announced last week by TD and several other major banks.
Analysts have noted that rates for mid-to long-term mortgages are going up in response to higher yields being paid on bond markets, where lenders finance much of their mortgage business.
The biggest change announced Tuesday by TD will be with three-year closed mortgages, which will rise by 0.5 percentage point to 4.65 per cent. The posted rate for four-year closed mortgages rises by 0.3 point to 5.14 per cent.
TD is lowering its six-month convertible mortgage rate by 0.15 point to 4.6 per cent while its one-year close mortgage rate falls 0.15 point to 3.75 per cent.
The short-term rates are influence more by the Bank of Canada's policy rates, which are at a historical low.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Gold prices charged higher Thursday, with another run at $1,000 an ounce looking increasingly likely, as the dollar remains weak and concerns about inflation boost demand for the metal.
Gold for August delivery rose $16.70 to settle at $982.30 an ounce after hitting an intra day high of $992.10 an ounce earlier this week.
The metal is up 11% from its mid April low of $869.50 an ounce as the U.S. dollar has tumbled against rival currencies. Gold and other commodities that are priced in dollars often gain ground when the greenback weakens.
The recent run up has raised bets that gold could top $1,000 an ounce for the third time ever. Gold rose to an all-time settlement high of $1,003.20 an ounce last year. It made another big push early this year, closing at $1001.80 an ounce Feb. 20.
In both cases, jittery investors flocked to the metal to preserve capital as the financial markets erupted in volatility.
By Halia Pavliva
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices rose on speculation that the slumping dollar will spur inflation, boosting the appeal of precious metals as a hedge. Platinum surged more than $55 an ounce to the highest since September. 
In May, the dollar fell 6.4 percent against a basket of major currencies, the biggest drop in 24 years. The greenback resumed its decline today, sending commodities higher. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials rose as much as 2.1 percent.
“Gold is rising on demand for a safe harbor,” said Philip Gotthelf, the president of Equidex Brokerage Group in Closter, New Jersey. “We still have considerable uncertainty about the dollar.”
Gold futures for August delivery rose $16.70, or 1.7 percent, to $982.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, the price reached $992.10, the highest for a most-active contract since Feb. 24.
Platinum futures for July delivery jumped $48.80, or 3.9 percent, to $1,293.30 an ounce on the Nymex. Earlier, the price reached $1,301.90, the highest since Sept. 9.
Platinum climbed for the seventh straight session, the longest rally since January. Holdings in ETF Securities Ltd.’s exchange-traded fund backed by the metal have jumped 74 percent this year.
Silver futures for July delivery gained 58.5 cents, or 3.8 percent, to $15.895 an ounce on the Comex.
This year, silver has jumped 41 percent, platinum is up 37 percent and gold has gained 11 percent.
‘Fears of Inflation’
August gold rose $4.40 to $984.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. July silver rose 22 cents to $15.955 and peaked at $16.02, its strongest level since August.
“Overnight, you had some profit-taking across the board in commodities,” said Bob Haberkorn, Lind-Waldock senior market strategist. “People were anticipating dollar strength on [Treasury Secretary Timothy] Geithner’s comments in China.
There's the usual talk about what the latest Case-Shiller house price data mean for the next short term move in the real estate market. Has housing bottomed? If not, has the rate of decline slowed? And when will we see an upturn?
Human nature likes the short term. Which is why so little attention is paid to something that is probably more important, if less urgent: What the latest data show about the long-term of the real estate market.
And it's startling.
We have just been through the biggest boom in real estate in American history. The subsequent bust surely hasn't finished.
Yet look at the numbers. Since 1987, when the Case-Shiller index of 10 major cities begins, it's risen from an index value of 63 to 151. Annual return: Just 4.1% a year. During that period, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose by 3% a year. Net result: Home prices produced a real return of just 1.15% a year over inflation over that time.
Critics may point out that the analysis is unfair -- after all, it starts counting near the peak of the 1980s housing boom. Fair enough. Look at the performance since, say, early 1994, when home prices were near a historic trough. Surely someone who bought then has made a bundle.
Not necessarily. Since then the ten-city index has risen from a value of 76 to 151. Annual return: 4.7%. Inflation over that period: 2.5%. That's still only a real return of 2.2% a year above inflation.
You can often do better on long-term inflation protected government bonds.
And real estate often costs 2% or more a year in property taxes, condo fees, maintenance, insurance and the like.
Conventional wisdom long held that home ownership was a route to wealth, and the imputed rent -- in other words, the right to live in your home -- was just part of the value you got from it. Under that widespread view, the recent housing bust was simply a temporary, though deep, pothole.
Yet for very many people, even over the past 15 or 20 years, the imputed rent may have been all, or nearly all, the real value they actually got from their home.
Yes, it's only recent data. And it's only ten cities. But there's some reason to suspect these numbers may, if anything, flatter real estate performance. After all, it's hard to look at the data and figure the bust is now over. And if they fall further, those long-term return figures will fall too.
Prices weren't just down 19% over the past year. They fell 2% just between February and March. And it's not the worst-hit markets that worry me the most -- Phoenix is down 53% from its peak, Miami 47%. That smells of capitulation. It's the other markets. New York and Boston are only down 20%. Denver's only down 14%.
Overall the ten- and 20-city Case-Shiller indices are merely back to mid-2003 levels. After the biggest boom and bust on record, history suggests things don't stop getting worse until they've gotten a lot worse than that.
THE PRICE OF WHOLESALE GOLD bounced in London on Tuesday morning, reaching $983 an ounce for Dollar investors and recovering from near 5-week lows versus the British Pound.
The Gold Price in Euros held steady at €689 as the single currency also leapt, jumping to new 2009 highs against the Dollar above $1.4270.
"Upside for gold could be limited today," reckons Walter de Wet at Standard Bank in a note. "There were fairly large volumes of physical gold selling [on Monday] when the price moved above $980."
But with US Treasury bond prices down more than 5% for the year to date, and "while higher yields increase the cost of holding gold in the longer run," de Wet adds, "right now it signals reduced investment appetite for exposure to the US and a weaker Dollar."
"Don't be complacent and think there isn't any alternative for China to buy your bills and bonds," warned former central-bank advisor Yu Yongding - scheduled to meet US Treasury secretary Tim Geithner in Beijing today - in an interview on Monday.
"The Euro is an alternative. And there are lots of raw materials we can still buy."
According to data from Bloomberg , foreign investment in US Treasury debt rose nearly $69 billion in May, with strong foreign demand for last week's auction of $101bn in new bonds.
The Federal Reserve will continue its $300bn "quantitative easing" of longer-term interest rates by purchasing 10- and 2-year bonds in the open market tomorrow and Thursday.
"Most of the ongoing rally in the precious metal is more driven by a stark weakness in the US Dollar than the risk averse buying we saw last winter," agrees Andrey Kryuchenkov at VTB Capital in London, quoted by The Telegraph.
By Jae Hur
June 1 (Bloomberg) -- Gold climbed to the highest in more than three months as a slumping dollar increased demand for the precious metal as a store of value. Silver gained to the highest since August.
Precious metals advanced as the dollar dropped to the lowest since Dec. 18 against a basket of six major currencies, after posting its biggest monthly loss this year in May. Silver rose 27 percent in May, the most since April 1987, and gold added 10 percent, the most since November.
“The dollar’s weakness continued to lend support to commodities, including precious metals and crude oil,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at IDO Securities Co. in Tokyo.
Gold for immediate delivery added as much as 0.7 percent to $985.70 an ounce, the highest since Feb. 24, and was at $983.51 at 1:57 p.m. in Singapore. Silver for immediate delivery climbed as much as 1.3 percent to $15.95 an ounce, the highest since Aug. 8, before trading at $15.865.
Spot silver has jumped 39 percent this year, while gold has gained 12 percent. One ounce of gold now buys about 62.1 ounces of silver, the lowest this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This is down from a high of 84.39 in October, which was the most since March 1995.
“Both precious metals appeared to have been overbought,” Kikukawa said. Silver’s 14-day relative strength index, a gauge of momentum, rose above 70 on May 28, a signal some investors use to indicate prices may be about to decline. The index for gold climbed above 70 on May 29.
Record High
“Given the re-emergence of the typical inverse relationship between the dollar and gold, the likelihood of further weakness in the dollar should drive gold to a test of its 2008 record highs,” said Toby Hassall, an analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia Pty in Sydney.
Spot gold reached a record $1,032.70 on March 17, 2008.
