Real Estate and the Global Recession

Now it can be said – the US is officially in a recession, and other countries around the globe are very quickly following suit. Predominating the country’s financial headaches is the real estate meltdown, or subprime crash, as experts call it. The question being asked is, was overinflated real estate the cause of the US and ultimately the global recession? If so, how?


New York Times economics columnist David Leonhardt explains it this way: In 1998, Wall Street started making it easier for home buyers to apply for loans, and packaged those loans to global investors as CDOs, or collateralized debt obligations. To make these investments even more enticing, Wall Street introduced the idea of subprime mortgages - ARM (adjustable rate mortgage) loans with high interest rates packaged in the guise of low initial interest rates.

High interest rates for the borrowers meant higher returns for the investors, while low credit score borrowers now had the opportunity to buy homes despite their normally unacceptable credit picture. The lax lending policies allowed people to borrow as much as 50% more than the real value of the house with a minimal down payment even as the high interest rates pushed prices up, resulting in grossly overpriced home prices. A case in point is San Francisco, where the median home price is currently 11.6% of the median annual salary.

Investors sought to accelerate their earnings by borrowing funds to invest. The extremely high loan interest rates caused many of the borrowers to default on their loans, and as home prices reached the point where borrowers couldn’t afford to pay their loans anymore and people stopped buying because prices were just way too high, the financial village came toppling down, one by one in a domino effect.

First to fall were Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac, the country’s two largest mortgage finance lenders that had bought the loans from the mortgage originators, repackaged them as mortgage-backed securities, and sold them to the global investors. Next came the banks and investment companies with heavy exposures on these sub prime loans such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, and as the banks fell so did the global investors who had invested in these mortgage investments. As the companies fell, investors panicked and engaged in a wave of selling, causing the stock markets to crash.

Industry insiders say that unless the number of foreclosures goes down, home prices will continue to decline and it will take longer before the real estate crisis bottoms out.

The S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Indices show that home prices continue to fall – as of May, Phoenix reported an annual decline of 31.9%, Las Vegas was down 31.3%, San Francisco down by 29.5%, Miami down by 28.4%, Los Angeles down by 27.6%, and San Diego 26.3%.

With more and more companies downsizing workforces, it looks like we’re in for quite a long wait. In the meantime, here’s our advice: if you’ve got a home, hold on to it. If you’re in the market to buy a house, do your due diligence and homework – compare prices, read the fine print, and make sure you can afford to pay before you sign that loan.

Mortgage Rate Guarantees

Close to half of Canadian home buyers wait less than 30 days before their home’s closing date to secure a mortgage rate, according to a recent Angus Reid poll.

The poll, commissioned by ING Direct, found that 40% of Canadian mortgage holders waited only 30 days or less in advance of the home’s closing, while another 27% waited nearly two months.


According to ING Direct, this last minute behaviour indicates that many Canadians are not taking advantage of the savings inherent in securing rate guarantees which are available as early as 90 to 120 days before a home closes.

Analysis shows that those who used the full rate guarantee period of 120 days, saved 0.18% on average or about a $1,800 over five years. These savings are based on a $200,000 mortgage with a 25 year amortization, five year fixed term at 6.96% (average posted five year fixed rate over last 10 years) and paid monthly.

According to Martin Beaudry, vice president of lending at ING Direct, not taking advantage of the full period available, is a missed opportunity. “Securing a rate guarantee, even before you start looking for a new home or your existing mortgage comes up for renewal, is a quick and simple way to save your money on mortgage interest payments over the long term. In fact, it’s the reason we’ve made guaranteeing an early rate at ING Direct that much easier via the rate hold, which essentially allows someone to hold a great rate without having to provide the information required during a more traditional pre-approval process.”

The rate hold, introduced by ING Direct this month, allows home buyers to quickly and simply hold a great rate for up to 120 days. For fixed rates this means protecting a low rate today against any increases that may occur over that time. For variable rates, it holds the best spread from ING Direct Prime, so if the spread changes and the rate increases as a result, Canadians are still protected. The service is the first of its kind in Canada, ING Direct says.

Taking full advantage of a rate guarantee period makes financial sense for both new home buyers and those with existing mortgages. In fact, those with existing mortgages are the ones who could benefit most from a rate hold.

The survey found that of the 64% of Canadians whose mortgages have come up for renewal, over one quarter (27%) indicated they let their mortgage automatically renew. Not negotiating a better rate than what is offered in a renewal letter by the current lender, or looking to alternate lenders for the best rate available in the market, means Canadians could be missing out on the opportunity to get a better rate

The survey found that Quebeckers were the worst offenders, being most likely to let their mortgages auto renew (36%) and apply for a mortgage 30 days or less before their home’s closing date (52%).