Frank Holmes Gold Absolutely Still a Buy: Metal Will Double in 5 Years

source : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5FHrFXhuBs
Gold jumped back above $1300 per ounce Tuesday morning and "absolutely" has more upside ahead, according to Frank Holmes, CEO and CIO of U.S. Global Investors, which has about $2.6 billion of assets.

Despite all the hype about its multi-year rally, gold is actually lagging many other commodities in that it hasn't yet eclipsed its 1980 high on an inflation-adjusted basis, Holmes says, noting the same is true of silver.

"If we were to go through those 1980 [inflation-] adjusted prices, gold would be at $2300 per ounce today," he says, calling that a "fair" target for the metal.

There is no bubble" in gold, Holmes says, declaring "it's a pretty easy layup that gold can double" from here over the next 5 years.

Holmes, who co-manages U.S. Global's Gold & Precious Metals Fund and World Precious Minerals Fund, cites the following to justify his bullish outlook:

Growth in Global Money Supply: Government efforts to fight the credit crisis have included huge spending and debt guarantee programs, resulting in greater supply but less confidence in "paper money." (On Tuesday, the Dollar Index fell to its lowest level since early February as weak U.S. economic data point to more efforts by the Fed to "reflate" the economy via quantitative easing.)

Emerging Middle Class: The big difference between gold's current run and the bull market of the 1970's is the "economic footprint" of emerging market economies, most notably India and China, Holmes says. "Forty percent of the world's population believe in gold and give gold as gifts" -- and have the money to buy them in increasing numbers.

The Big Dumb Money: "All the pension funds, all the endowment [funds] aren't running into gold...yet," Holmes says, noting those investors "piled into" tech in 2000 and private equity funds in 2006. Meanwhile, European Central Banks have dramatically slowed their gold sales and could become buyers in the years ahead.

Alchemy vs. Reality: Gold skeptics often note that almost every ounce of gold ever mined remains in existence. That may be true, but Holmes says new supply is on the wane, suggesting it's "easier to invent a new technology" than find a 10 million ounce deposit. And if you were to discover such a bonanza, you'd have to incur huge infrastructure costs and meet rising regulatory hurdles to get the 'yellow metal' out of the ground.

Of course, you should question anything that looks like a "can't lose" investment - and bulls say gold wins whether the economy is hit by deflation or inflation. But gold has defied its skeptics for a decade and shows no sign of letting up now.